مجلة الاربعين المحكمة
By following the numerical indicators that accompanied the arbaeen visit of Imam Hussein (peace be upon him), in which the number of visitors exceeded the largest numbers of human gatherings that can occur on religious, national, sporting, and other occasions throughout the world, especially since the number of visitors for the year 2022 AD/1444 AH, as official statistics indicate, has reached more than twenty million (21198640), including (4012091) visitors from outside Iraq and from more than 150 countries around the world, it has become important to deal with these indicators with a mathematical model. In general, the mathematical model helps to explain a system or event, studying the effects of its various components, and predicting its behavior. Mathematical models may be dynamic systems, statistical models, differential equations, or theoretical models, and these types may overlap with a specific model that includes several abstract structures. The current paper is concerned with employing four statistical models of extended exponential distribution in addition to its traditional version, and adopting multiple information criteria to determine the best model through which data related to the rate of visitors arriving to the holy Karbala Governorate to participate in performing the arbaeen pilgrimage rituals can be represented, and then extrapolating the most important relevant statistical characteristics. The results show that the best fit is the extended exponential distribution that is associated with the generator family of the truncated exponential Topp-Leone