مجلة الاربعين المحكمة
In the present study, we concentrated on the public health aspects of Ziyarat al-Arba’een, for the last 7 years (2017 - 2023), and the data were obtained from the Karbala Center for Studies and Research, part of the holy Al-Hussain Shrine. In this report, we had two goals. First was to explore the annual growth rate of different pilgrimage-related outcomes such as: number of years, local visitors, Arab and non-Arab visitors, newborns, dead, operations, medical camps, outpatient services, human resources and hospitals. Secondly, to forecast the important factors related to the Ziyarat al-Arba’een through double exponential smoothing time series techniques. Data was processed with the statistical package Minitab. Our findings demonstrated for one, a significant rise in local, Arab, and non-Arab visitors, and this boost in religious tourism will have a positive effect for the local economy. In the second place, medical consultations increased greatly and this implies a high level of accessibility to medical attention, proving to be an apt response to the community demands. Thirdly, p-value results from the linear regression on the ranking about the numbers of human resource, death, local visitor, and surgery clearly showed statistical significance, which means the meaningful trends or changes of the aspects during a certain period.